It’s the Major League Baseball Trade season. So it’s that time of year when teams overvalue their prospects.
Just for fun, let’s look at how the 2011 Philadelphia Phillies’ farm system was graded and worked out. At the time, the Phillies were the best regular season team in baseball and most outlets had them as having a 10th to 15th best organization.
We’ll look at several outlets that ranked them, starting with personal favorite John Sickels. We’ll give you the name, their grade, their career WAR and the last year they appeared in the big leagues.
2011 Sickels – grade – WAR – last in Bigs
Dom Brown — A — (-.1) — 2015
Jon Singleton — B+ — (-.9) — 2015
Brody Colvin — B+ — never made it above AA.
Jarred Cosart — B — 4.2 — 2017
Trevor May — B — .2 — 2016
Jesse Biddle — B — .8 — rookie this year
Sebastian Valle — C+ — never made it above AAA
Domingo Santana — C+ — 3.3 — 2018
Vance Worley — C+ — 5.1 — 2017
Julio Rodriguez — C+ — never made it above AA
Baseball Prospectus — Grade — WAR — Last season in bigs (if player isn’t already listed)
1. Brown — five Star
2. Colvin — four star
3. Singleton — four star
4. Cossart — three star
5. May — three star
6. Biddle — three star
7. Jiwan James — three star — never made it above AA
8. Aaron Altherr — three star — 2.3 — 2018
9. Scott Mathieson — three star — (-.8) 2011
10. Valle
Now, let’s look MLB-wide from Baseball Prospectus:
Player — games played — All Star — WAR
1. Bryce Harper — 862 — 6 — 26.1
2. Mike Trout — 1,022 — 7 — 61
3. Jesus Montero — 226 — 0 — (-.3)
4. Dom Brown — 493 — 1 — (-.1)
5. Julio Teheran — 184 — 2 — 16.6
6. Aroldis Chapman — 476 — 6 — 16.3
7. Mike Moustakas — 927 — 2 — 13.2
8. Jameson Taillon — 62 — 0 — 5.3
9. Jeremy Hellickson — 217 — 0 — 12.1
10. Matt Moore — 158 — 1 — 4.4
11. John Lamb — 27 — 0 — (-1.7)
12. Eric Hosmer — 1,142 — 1 — 14.5
13. Will Myers — 580 — 1 — 9.2
14. Kyle Drabek — 43 — 0 — (-.1)
15. Shelby Miller — 130 — 1 — 8.5
16. Manny Machado — 860 — 4 — 30.9
17. Zach Britton — 305 — 2 — 11.3
18. Desmond Jennings — 567 — 0 — 13.4
19. Chris Sale — 280 — 7 — 41.8
20. Freddie Freeman — 1,120 — 3 — 30.9
21. Mike Montgomery — 136 — 0 — 5.5
22. Brandon Belt — 897 — 1 — 23.1
23. Jacob Turner — 101 — 0 — (-2.3)
24. Michael Pineda — 117 — 1 — 8.6
25. Dustin Ackley — 635 — 0 — 8.1
26. Mike Minor — 194 — 0 — 7.2
27. Manny Banuelos — 7 — 0 — (-.3)
28. Jason Kipnis — 940 — 2 — 21.0
29. Gary Sanchez — 240 — 1 — 7.9
30. Chris Carter — 750 — 0 — 2.5
Now, it’s not worthwhile to expect them the prospect prognosticators to have nailed all of these in exact order of WAR.
There are so many valuables. Some of these players weren’t going to hit the bigs for a few years. Others were on there way within weeks.
It’s worth noting that seven of the top ten prospects became all stars. Admittedly, one of those made who did earned it on the only hot month of his short career. It’s also worth noting Brown and Montero – two top five prospects – we’re out of the big leagues rather quickly.
It’s rare that a top 30 prospect gets traded. But we’ll see a handful of guys in the top 100. We can see that 12 of the top 30 prospects never became All Stars.
It is worthwhile to value your prospects and not toss them away. No one wants to give up Jeff Bagwell for Larry Anderson. But fans shouldn’t be outraged if their team gives up some big name prospects because there are no guarantees.
I got into journalism because I desperately wanted to be a sportswriter. I wanted to cover a Major League Baseball team. To tell the fans what happened and who the players were and how the game changed.
In 1945 Robert Jackson shocked his colleagues and walked away from the Supreme Court. It wasn’t a permanent leave; he was on sabbatical.